Project management is the discipline[1] of planning, organizing and managing resources to bring about the successful completion of specific project goals and objectives.
A project is a finite endeavor--having specific start and completion dates--undertaken to meet particular goals and objectives, usually to bring about beneficial change or added value. This finite characteristic of projects stands in contrast to processes[2], or operations--which is repetitive, permanent or semi-permanent functional work to produce products or services. In practice, the management of these two systems is often found to be quite different, and as such requires the development of distinct technical skills and the adoption of separate management.
The primary challenge of project management is to achieve all of the project goals[3] and objectives while honoring the preconceived project constraints.[4] Typical constraints are scope, time and budget.[5] The secondary—and more ambitious—challenge is to optimize the allocation and integration of inputs necessary to meet pre-defined objectives
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Event Chains
Event Chains
Events can cause other events, which will create event chains. These event chains can significantly affect the course of the project. For example, requirement changes can cause an activity to be delayed. To accelerate the activity, the project manager allocates a resource from another activity, which then leads to a missed deadline. Eventually, this can lead to the failure of the project.
[edit] Monte Carlo Simulations
Once events and event chains are defined, quantitative analysis using Monte Carlo simulation can be performed to quantify the cumulative effect of the events. Probabilities and effects of risks are used as input data for Monte Carlo simulation of the project schedule[6]. In most real life projects, it is necessary to supplement the information regarding the uncertainties expressed as an event, with distributions related to duration, start time, cost, and other parameters.
[edit] Critical Event Chains
The single events or the event chains that have the most potential to affect the projects are the “critical events” or “critical chains of events.” By identifying critical events or critical chains of events, we can mitigate their negative effects. These critical chains of events can be identified by analyzing the correlations between the main project parameters, such as project duration or cost, and the event chains.
[edit] Performance Tracking with Event Chains
Monitoring the activity's progress ensures that updated information is used to perform the analysis. During the course of the project, the probability and time of the events can be recalculated based on actual data. The main issue with performance tracking is forecasting an activity’s duration and cost if an activity is partially completed and certain events are assigned to the activity. The simple heuristic approach to this problem is to analyze the moment of risk, which is defined as one of the event parameters. Advanced analysis can be performed using a Bayesian approach.
Event Chain Diagrams
Event Chain Diagrams are visualizations that show the relationships between events and tasks and how the events affect each other. The simplest way to represent these chains is to depict them as arrows associated with certain tasks or time intervals on the Gantt chart. Different events and event chains can be displayed using different colors. Events can be global (for all tasks in the project) and local (for a particular task). By using Event Chain Diagrams to visualize events and event chains, the modeling and analysis of risks and uncertainties can be significantly simplified
Events can cause other events, which will create event chains. These event chains can significantly affect the course of the project. For example, requirement changes can cause an activity to be delayed. To accelerate the activity, the project manager allocates a resource from another activity, which then leads to a missed deadline. Eventually, this can lead to the failure of the project.
[edit] Monte Carlo Simulations
Once events and event chains are defined, quantitative analysis using Monte Carlo simulation can be performed to quantify the cumulative effect of the events. Probabilities and effects of risks are used as input data for Monte Carlo simulation of the project schedule[6]. In most real life projects, it is necessary to supplement the information regarding the uncertainties expressed as an event, with distributions related to duration, start time, cost, and other parameters.
[edit] Critical Event Chains
The single events or the event chains that have the most potential to affect the projects are the “critical events” or “critical chains of events.” By identifying critical events or critical chains of events, we can mitigate their negative effects. These critical chains of events can be identified by analyzing the correlations between the main project parameters, such as project duration or cost, and the event chains.
[edit] Performance Tracking with Event Chains
Monitoring the activity's progress ensures that updated information is used to perform the analysis. During the course of the project, the probability and time of the events can be recalculated based on actual data. The main issue with performance tracking is forecasting an activity’s duration and cost if an activity is partially completed and certain events are assigned to the activity. The simple heuristic approach to this problem is to analyze the moment of risk, which is defined as one of the event parameters. Advanced analysis can be performed using a Bayesian approach.
Event Chain Diagrams
Event Chain Diagrams are visualizations that show the relationships between events and tasks and how the events affect each other. The simplest way to represent these chains is to depict them as arrows associated with certain tasks or time intervals on the Gantt chart. Different events and event chains can be displayed using different colors. Events can be global (for all tasks in the project) and local (for a particular task). By using Event Chain Diagrams to visualize events and event chains, the modeling and analysis of risks and uncertainties can be significantly simplified
Event chain methodology
Event chain methodology is an uncertainty modeling and schedule network analysis technique that is focused on identifying and managing events and event chains that affect project schedules. Event chain methodology is the next advance beyond critical path method and critical chain project management.[1].
Event chain methodology helps to mitigate effect motivational and cognitive biases in estimating and scheduling.[2][3] . In many cases, project managers intentionally or unintentionally create project schedules that are impossible to implement[4][5]. The methodology also simplifies the process of defining risks and uncertainties in project schedules, particularly by improving the ability to provide reality checks and to visualize multiple events. Event chain methodology is used to perform more accurate quantitative analysis while taking into account such factors as relationships between different events and actual moments of the events.
Event chain methodology helps to mitigate effect motivational and cognitive biases in estimating and scheduling.[2][3] . In many cases, project managers intentionally or unintentionally create project schedules that are impossible to implement[4][5]. The methodology also simplifies the process of defining risks and uncertainties in project schedules, particularly by improving the ability to provide reality checks and to visualize multiple events. Event chain methodology is used to perform more accurate quantitative analysis while taking into account such factors as relationships between different events and actual moments of the events.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Risk management plan
A Risk Management Plan is a document prepared by a project manager to foresee risks, to estimate the effectiveness, and to create response plans to mitigate them. It also consists of the risk assessment matrix.
A risk is defined as "an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project's objectives."[1] Risk is inherent with any project, and project managers should assess risks continually and develop plans to address them. The risk management plan contains an analysis of likely risks with both high and low impact, as well as mitigation strategies to help the project avoid being derailed should common problems arise. Risk management plans should be periodically reviewed by the project team in order to avoid having the analysis become stale and not reflective of actual potential project risks.
Most critically, risk management plans include a risk strategy. Broadly, there are four potential strategies, with numerous variations. Projects may choose to:
Accept risk; simply take the chance that the negative impact will be incurred
Avoid risk; changing plans in order to prevent the problem from arising
Mitigate risk; lessening its impact through intermediate steps
Transfer risk; outsource risk to a capable third party that can manage the outcome
A risk is defined as "an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project's objectives."[1] Risk is inherent with any project, and project managers should assess risks continually and develop plans to address them. The risk management plan contains an analysis of likely risks with both high and low impact, as well as mitigation strategies to help the project avoid being derailed should common problems arise. Risk management plans should be periodically reviewed by the project team in order to avoid having the analysis become stale and not reflective of actual potential project risks.
Most critically, risk management plans include a risk strategy. Broadly, there are four potential strategies, with numerous variations. Projects may choose to:
Accept risk; simply take the chance that the negative impact will be incurred
Avoid risk; changing plans in order to prevent the problem from arising
Mitigate risk; lessening its impact through intermediate steps
Transfer risk; outsource risk to a capable third party that can manage the outcome
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)